๐Ÿ“– The book launches soon โ€” the Long Edge Bet Tracker is available now.
The Long Edge Coming soon
A practitioner's manual ยท Coming soon

The Long Edge

Probably the most boring book about betting you will ever read.
PDF & EPUB ยท no DRM ยท $19.99
Coming soon ยท $19.99
The Long Edge Bet Tracker is available now.
The Long Edge
A practitioner's manual on betting, edge, and survival
A. N. Edvardsen
Contents

What's inside.

  1. 01The Honest Premise
  2. 02The Only Edge That Matters
  3. 03Bankroll: The First Thing to Get Right
  4. 04The Kelly Criterion and How to Use It Without Blowing Up
  5. 05Variance: What Luck Actually Looks Like
  6. 06The Mind: Why Most Good Bettors Still Lose
  7. 07Markets: How Odds Are Made and How They Break
  8. 08Infrastructure: Where You Play Matters More Than How
  9. 09Horse Racing: The Deepest Game
  10. 10Sport-Specific Edges and Traps
  11. 11Models, Ratings, and the Limits of Automation
  12. 12The Tracker Mindset
  13. 13The Professional Life
  14. 14Twenty Truths
From the book

From Chapter 1.

There are roughly three kinds of people who bet on sports and horse races. The first, and by far the largest, loses money. The second breaks even over time without realising it, because the entertainment value masks the slow bleed. The third, a very small minority, treats it as a serious discipline and makes it pay. This book is for the person who wants to be in the third group โ€” or who already is, and wants to stay there.

โ€” Chapter 1: The Honest Premise

If you close this book energised to go place more bets, you have misread it.

โ€” Chapter 1
Audience

Honest about who this is for.

Read this if

  • You bet regularly and want to understand why most people lose and the few who don't, don't.
  • You want the maths explained clearly โ€” formulas with worked examples, not academic proofs.
  • You're willing to do work: reading, tracking, reviewing, sitting out when there's nothing to do.
  • You trade sports, horses, or prediction markets and want a framework that applies across all of them.

Skip this if

  • You want picks or a system. This is not that.
  • You bet for entertainment and don't want to know your actual ROI.
  • You're looking for encouragement. This is not a gentle book.
  • You want a beginner's guide to what odds are. This assumes you know the basics.
Pricing

One payment. Yours to keep.

The book
The Long Edge
$19.99
PDF & EPUB ยท no DRM
Coming soon
Save $20
Book + Tracker
$99.99
The book + The Long Edge Bet Tracker
Coming soon
The Tracker
$99.99
Google Sheets + Excel + PDF guide
Get the tracker
The companion tool

The book tells you why. The tracker shows you what.

Chapter 12 covers why tracking matters and what to measure. The Long Edge Bet Tracker is the tool that does it โ€” a Google Sheets template with the same principles baked in.

It handles Kelly sizing, calibration scoring, closing line value, bankroll management, and performance breakdowns by sport, bookmaker, and source. It tells you when your sample size is large enough to draw conclusions, and when it isn't.

One-time purchase at $99.99 โ€” or bundle it with the book for the same $99.99, and the book's free.

What's in the tracker
โœ๏ธ Bet log (back, lay, each-way, exchanges)
โค๏ธ Kelly stake calculator
๐Ÿ“Š Stats by sport, bookmaker, source
๐Ÿ“ˆ Running P&L chart (filter-proof)
๐ŸŽฏ Calibration with Brier score
๐Ÿ“’ Deposit/withdrawal log
๐Ÿฆ Live balance per bookmaker
โš™๏ธ 300+ configurable categories

What each tab does

Bets
One row per bet. Fill in the left side, everything on the right calculates automatically. Supports back, lay, each-way, Asian handicap, accumulators, and exchange commission.
Kelly
Enter odds and your estimated probability. Set your Kelly fraction. Get a stake size. Bankroll pulls from your actual deposits and results.
Stats
ROI, yield, and CLV broken down by sport, bookmaker, and source. Significance verdicts tell you when you have enough data to trust the numbers.
Calibration
Enter your fair odds estimate and the tracker measures whether you're overconfident, underconfident, or on target. Brier score and bucket analysis.
P&L
Performance dashboard with running profit/loss chart, per-bet CLV, and calibration scatter data ready for charting.
Bank
Live balance per bookmaker. Deposits, settled profit, pending bets, available funds. CLV by bookmaker shows who might limit you.
Questions

The ones that matter.

PDF and EPUB. Reads well on any screen or e-reader. No DRM โ€” the files are yours.
Both. The core principles (value, Kelly, variance, psychology, market structure) apply to everything. Chapter 9 goes deep on horse racing specifically. Chapter 10 covers sport-specific edges and traps.
No. Formulas are explained with worked examples. If you can follow "bet ยฃ100 at 3.00 odds," you can follow the maths in this book.
No. It tells you how to think about what to bet on, how to size your stakes, how to measure whether your approach is working, and how to not blow up along the way.
The book stands alone. The tracker is useful if you want a ready-made tool for the practices described in Chapter 12. They work well together but neither requires the other.
Not yet โ€” Amazon KDP is planned. Meanwhile the EPUB from Gumroad loads on a Kindle via Send to Kindle.
Background

Where this comes from.

This book comes from the operator behind MrWorldPool โ€” a betting product for serious horse racing pool bettors covering Scandinavian, UK & Irish, Hong Kong, UAE, German, and Japanese racing.

The material comes from years of daily use across those markets, plus selective betting on football, tennis, golf, and prediction markets. The companion bet tracker started as a personal tool and became a product when enough people asked about the process behind it.

Neither the book nor the tracker will make you a winner. They give you the framework and the measurement tools. The edge is yours to find.